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Bitcoin consistently outperforms gold and the S&P 500 in the 60 days following major global crises — and the same pattern is playing out right now during the U.S.-Iran conflict. That’s the key finding from new research by Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin, led by Rony Szuster, head of research at the Latin American platform. Since the war began, Bitcoin has risen more than 2.2%, while gold has dropped 11% and the S&P 500 has shed 4.4% — its steepest monthly drop since 2022.
The timing of this analysis matters. With the Fear and Greed Index stuck at single digits and whale distribution at record highs, most market participants are focused on everything that could go wrong. The data from Mercado Bitcoin tells a different story — one grounded in five years of post-crisis performance data that consistently points in Bitcoin’s favor once the initial panic subsides.
📊 Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 After Major Crises
*Since war began, at time of writing. Full 60-day window still open. Source: Mercado Bitcoin.
1. The Research: Bitcoin’s 60-Day Post-Crisis Playbook
The study, led by Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin — Latin America’s largest crypto exchange — examined 60-day performance windows following major economic or geopolitical shocks. The methodology is straightforward: measure the performance of Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 starting from the moment of peak uncertainty and track what happens over the next two months.
What the Data Shows: Two Historical Precedents
March 2020 — COVID-19 outbreak: As global markets entered freefall and investors scrambled for liquidity, Bitcoin dropped sharply in the initial panic — but then posted a 21% gain over the following 60 days, outpacing both gold and the S&P 500. This was the period that first established Bitcoin’s post-crisis recovery pattern.
April 2025 — Trump tariff escalation: When the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs, Bitcoin surged 24% over the following 60 days. Gold rose 8% and the S&P 500 gained just 4% — Bitcoin outperforming both by a wide margin and cementing the pattern identified by the research team.
2. The Current Conflict: Bitcoin Leads While Gold and Stocks Bleed
The pattern appears to be repeating in real time during the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. According to Szuster, Bitcoin is currently the only one of the three assets in positive territory since the war began. At time of writing, Bitcoin has risen more than 2.2% — from around $65,800 to approximately $67,300 — while the comparison assets tell a starkly different story:
- Gold (-11%) — Despite being the traditional safe haven asset in times of geopolitical crisis, gold has dropped around 11% since the war began. The liquidity-scramble effect Szuster describes appears to have hit gold holders hard in the initial phases.
- S&P 500 (-4.4%) — The U.S. equity benchmark has shed 4.4% in what represents its steepest monthly drop since 2022 — the year of the LUNA crash, FTX collapse, and the most brutal crypto bear market in recent history.
- Bitcoin (+2.2%) — The only asset in positive territory. Supported by massive institutional buying (ETFs absorbed ~50,000 BTC in March, Strategy added 44,000 BTC), Bitcoin has absorbed war headlines, $403M liquidation events, and record whale distribution without breaking its floor.
3. Why Bitcoin Recovers While Traditional Assets Lag
The mechanics behind Bitcoin’s post-crisis outperformance are rooted in the liquidity cycle Szuster identifies. When a major crisis hits, investors across all asset classes — including Bitcoin — sell to raise cash or reduce risk exposure. This creates the initial sharp drop. But Bitcoin’s recovery dynamic is structurally different from gold or equities for several reasons:
The Structural Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Post-Crisis Edge
- 24/7 global liquidity — Unlike equities or gold ETFs, Bitcoin trades continuously worldwide. This means that once the initial panic-selling phase ends, demand can re-enter immediately from any timezone — compressing the recovery timeline relative to traditional assets.
- Hard supply cap — Bitcoin’s 21 million coin limit means that institutional demand bids compete for a fixed supply. When ETFs and corporate treasuries are absorbing 50,000+ BTC per month, they are taking coins permanently off the market — creating upward price pressure that compounds over weeks.
- Geopolitical neutrality — Bitcoin is not issued by any government, is not subject to sanctions, and cannot be confiscated from a reserve account. In a U.S.-Iran conflict specifically, the dollar’s role as reserve currency faces narrative pressure — and Bitcoin is the most obvious beneficiary of that narrative.
- Institutional floor — In the current cycle, unlike 2020, there is a structural institutional bid that didn’t exist before. ETFs (50,000 BTC absorbed in March), Strategy’s ongoing accumulation (44,000 BTC), and Morgan Stanley’s incoming ETF with access to $6.2 trillion AUM create a floor that previous crises did not have.
Szuster reinforces this long-term perspective with a simple data point: despite its volatility, Bitcoin was the best-performing asset of the past decade. The post-crisis recoveries documented in this study are not outliers — they are consistent with a broader pattern of Bitcoin absorbing short-term panic and resuming its long-term trajectory.
4. What the Data Doesn’t Tell You: The Risks Still on the Table
The Mercado Bitcoin research is compelling — but it covers only two prior crisis events, both of which were resolved or stabilized within the 60-day window. The current U.S.-Iran conflict introduces variables that the historical precedents don’t fully account for:
- Duration uncertainty — COVID-19 and the tariff shock had identifiable “peak uncertainty” moments. A military conflict has no guaranteed endpoint. A 60-day window that ends with escalating conflict rather than de-escalation may produce very different results than the prior two data points.
- Whale distribution at record levels — Whales holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have shifted from +200,000 BTC net accumulation a year ago to -188,000 BTC net distribution today. This is the most aggressive distribution cycle on record and is happening simultaneously with the conflict — a combination the prior studies did not include.
- Negative net demand — Overall 30-day apparent demand sits at -63,000 BTC. Institutional buying is absorbing whale sales, but the net flow remains negative. The prior crises did not occur against a backdrop of the most bearish on-chain demand data in years.
- Fear and Greed Index at 9 — Sustained single-digit readings without a corresponding price collapse are historically rare. The two closest precedents in 2022 were followed by 20–30% single-day drawdowns. The institutional floor may prevent a repeat — but that floor has never been tested at this scale.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
According to research by Mercado Bitcoin, yes — consistently, over the 60 days following major crises. After COVID-19 in March 2020, Bitcoin gained 21% while gold and the S&P 500 trailed. After the Trump tariff shock in April 2025, Bitcoin gained 24% while gold rose 8% and the S&P gained only 4%. In both cases, Bitcoin posted the strongest return of the three assets. In the current U.S.-Iran conflict, Bitcoin is the only one of the three in positive territory since the war began.
Rony Szuster of Mercado Bitcoin explains the initial drop as a liquidity-seeking behavior: investors across all asset classes sell to raise cash or reduce risk exposure when a crisis hits. This affects Bitcoin disproportionately because it’s highly liquid and globally accessible. But once the panic-selling phase ends, Bitcoin benefits from structural recovery dynamics — 24/7 global trading, hard supply cap, institutional buying, and geopolitical neutrality — that traditional assets like gold and equities don’t share in the same way.
Since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, Bitcoin has risen approximately 2.2% — from around $65,800 to $67,300 at time of writing. Gold, the traditional safe haven, has dropped around 11%. The S&P 500 has lost 4.4%, its steepest monthly decline since 2022. Bitcoin is currently the only one of the three assets in positive territory, consistent with the post-crisis pattern identified by Mercado Bitcoin’s research.
Gold’s -11% decline during the current conflict illustrates the “liquidity scramble” dynamic Szuster describes. Even traditionally defensive assets fall when institutional investors need to raise cash quickly — gold positions are liquidated alongside riskier assets. This is the same pattern that occurred in March 2020 when gold initially dropped before recovering. The critical question is whether gold will follow its own historical playbook and recover, or whether the structural shift toward Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge is beginning to permanently erode gold’s safe haven premium.
Bitcoin. Despite its notorious volatility, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset class of the past decade by a significant margin, outperforming gold, the S&P 500, real estate, and most other investable assets. From under $1,000 in 2017 to a peak near $97,860 in January 2026, its compound annual growth rate dwarfs every major traditional asset class. This long-term outperformance is the broader context within which Mercado Bitcoin’s post-crisis analysis sits.
Rony Szuster is the head of research at Mercado Bitcoin, Latin America’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, based in Brazil. Mercado Bitcoin serves millions of users across Latin America and is one of the region’s most established crypto platforms. The research discussed in this article was published as part of the firm’s ongoing market analysis, examining Bitcoin’s behavior during geopolitical and macroeconomic crises using a structured 60-day methodology.
This article does not constitute financial advice. The Mercado Bitcoin research shows a consistent historical pattern of Bitcoin outperformance in the 60 days following major crises — but this is based on two prior data points, not a law of markets. The current situation includes structural risk factors not present in those prior crises: record whale distribution (-188,000 BTC), negative 30-day net demand (-63,000 BTC), a Fear and Greed Index stuck at 9, and an active military conflict with an uncertain resolution timeline. Historical patterns are informative — they are not predictive guarantees.
The $65,000 support level is the most critical floor in the current market structure. Bitcoin has tested this level multiple times since the conflict began without decisively breaking below it — held up by institutional ETF buying and corporate treasury accumulation. A daily close below $65,000 would signal that whale distribution has exceeded the institutional absorption capacity, technically opening the range toward $58,000–$60,000. On the upside, a break above $73,000 would confirm the post-crisis recovery pattern identified by Mercado Bitcoin is repeating.
📊 The Bottom Line
The data from Mercado Bitcoin is genuinely compelling: Bitcoin has outperformed gold and the S&P 500 in the 60 days following every major crisis analyzed, including COVID-19 and the Trump tariff shock. The current U.S.-Iran conflict is tracking the same pattern in its early stages. But the most historically significant part of the post-crisis recovery window — the weeks ahead — has not yet played out. The next four weeks will tell us whether the pattern holds for a third time, or whether the current structural headwinds (record whale distribution, negative net demand, extreme fear) are different enough to break it.
⚠️ This article is informational only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
