Dream Football: Where agreement positions fail at QB for 2024 

ECR means “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which indicates the typical positions of the dream football sector and is commonly comparable to ADP (which varies from site-to-site). This recurring positional collection will certainly highlight some huge distinctions in between ECR and my very own rankings.

Quarterbacks I such as greater than agreement

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (ECR = QB5 vs. My Ranking = QB1)

Dream factors per dropback is among the best future indicators of dream efficiency, and Richardson simply recorded the most FP/DB considering that Lamar Jackson’s historical 2019 period. Richardson balanced 29.2 fantasy points per four quarters as a novice and matched C.J. Stroud in weekly top-five finishes in spite of playing simply 10 quarters.

Richardson remained to reveal a strong ability to avoid sacks like he carried out in university, and in 2014’s full-season hurrying rate would certainly’ve led all quarterbacks in thrill backyards (925 ), thrill TDs (26!), efforts (170) anddesigned runs (111) He conveniently paced the organization in designed rush rate in the red zone and doesn’t plan on changing his playing style in Year 2.

Richardson has a restricted NFL example and shows up to get in 2024 with an increased injury threat yet the various other Rate 1 dream quarterbacks all have enigma too, and none have AR’s ceiling. Shane Steichen is a certified QB guru, and the Colts play inside your home at an exceptionally high rate (top-five in plays per video game with Richardson in 2014). Indianapolis is packed with athletic weapons and has two legit wide receivers and a top-five offending line. Richardson will certainly additionally likely enhance during his second year in the league and be much much better versed in Steichen’s offense.

With drooling hurrying capacity and the ideal mentoring team and lineup around him, Richardson’s unparalleled dream prospective outweighs his health and wellness threat.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (ECR = QB8 vs. My Ranking = QB5)

Murray still placed leading 10 in dream factors per dropback last period in spite of running less than usual coming off a torn ACL and with probably the organization’s weakest sustaining actors. He started running more after Arizona’s bye and need to be a lot more hostile on the ground during his second year removed from knee surgery.

The Cardinals have an underrated system/coaching team that aided Arizona rank top-10 in EPA per play and backyards per play over the 2nd fifty percent of last period and afterwards included celebrity WR Marvin Harrison Jr. early in the draft. Trey McBride has emerged as an elite option at tight end, Arizona updated its offending line and the NFC West need to include a lots of shootouts in 2024.

Considering that his newbie period, Murray has actually placed as the QB4, QB4 and QB5 in dream factors per video game prior to tearing his ACL in 2022, and he ended up greater than Stroud and Patrick Mahomes in 2014 in spite of the negative problems.

The last time Murray had a 1,000-yard receiver, he finished as the QB2.

Murray merely should not be composed behind quarterbacks that do not run, like Stroud or Joe Burrow.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (ECR = QB11 vs. My Ranking = QB8)

Purdy simply published the best YPA season in NFL history in spite of incredibly poor pass protection and rehabbing from elbow surgery up until completion of November He tossed for even more backyards and simply one less TD pass than Jordan Love in 135 less efforts.

The 49ers are forecasted to score the most points in the league in 2024 (including the fantasy playoffs), while Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are bothtop-15 fantasy WRs in ECR George Kittle is the TE6.

Kyle Shanahan’s current employees choices additionally recommend San Francisco may pass far more in 2024 (like he carried out in Atlanta), specifically with Christian McCaffrey coming off a 400+ touch project.

Purdy (0.63) ended up simply behind leader Josh Allen (0.64) in dream factors per dropback last period, when he led the NFL in30+ yard pass attempts He leads the organization in passer score and YPA and is 2nd in TD passessince taking over as starter in 2022 In 2015’s historical effectiveness makes certain to fall back, yet that need to be countered by even more quantity. Purdy does not provide the exact same hurrying upside as the QB rate over him, yet he can including 4-6 hurrying ratings on the period.

Purdy added pounds and zip throughout an injury-free offseason, yet the “system QB” remains to obtainless respect than Rodney Dangerfield Purdy ought to intimidate 40+ passing goals in 2024.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (ECR = QB12 vs. My Ranking = QB9)

There’s a great chance Washington ends up regretting drafting Daniels over Drake Maye, yet that does not imply Daniels can not be a dream require today. Last period he balanced the second-most fantasy points per game (40.2) considering that 2016 and the second-most fantasy points per dropback considering that 2014. Daniels averaged 60+ rushing yards and racked up 34 hurrying goals throughout his university job, and Kliff Kingsbury aided Kyler Murray surface as a top-10 QB as a novice. Kingsbury’s system placed initially in situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate throughout his 4 periods in Arizona, additionally generating runs versus light boxes at a league-high rate.

Daniels is a truly elite runner that led all NCAA quarterbacks last year in missed out on takes on required per effort (0.72) while leading all Power 5 QBs in hurrying backyards (1,250), YPC (10.4 ), shuffles (55) and PFF Rushing Quality (92.4– the very best ever before). Running not just enhances a dream quarterback’s benefit but also his floor, and Daniels is most likely to run as much as any QB in the league as a novice.

Daniels is unquestionably an injury risk, yet high-upside choices (thinking not Superflex) make a great deal of feeling with the quarterback setting much deeper than ever before this year.

Quarterbacks I such as much less than agreement

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (ECR = QB7 vs. My Ranking = QB11)

Burrow endured a rare season-ending wrist injury in 2014no NFL QB has ever experienced before He was having “good days and bad days” in Might, although dealing with an injury in training camp is nothing new for Burrow.

Injuries apart, Burrow has various other warnings. Also if we totally cross out his amazingly inadequate initial 6 video games last period (5.3 YPA!) many thanks to his calf bone injury, the total adjustment in Cincinnati’s violation mean a larger trouble. Burrow has become a checkdown artist considering that opposing defenses began utilizing two-high safety and securities at a high price. He placed 38th in downfield passing price in 2022 and 32nd in intended air yards per attempt last period, and reports out of Bengals campsuggest more of the same in 2024 Quarterbacks can be effective with a reduced aDOT, yet absolutely exclusive dream manufacturing comes to be a whole lot harder (see: Patrick Mahomes), specifically without running.

Burrow was fantastic after Cincinnati’s bye when healthy last season, and it’s feasibleCincinnati passes more frequently with Joe Mixon gone Yet Burrow is not likely to run a lot whatsoever at this phase of his job, and he’s handled simply 6.98 YPA considering that 2022 (26 video games) while knowingly tossing below much more. There’s threat right here past the injury background.

That claimed, my position is much less of a charge on Burrow and even more an item of an absolutely stacked top 10 that consists of dual-threat QBs that do not need to deal with the Ravens, Steelers and Browns’ defenses 35% of their routine.

Jordan Love, Environment-friendly Bay Packers (ECR = QB10 vs. My Ranking = QB12)

Love was the QB4 in dream factors per video game over Weeks 11-18 last period, and the Packers are well-coached with a crammed WR team. Nonetheless, his 7.2 YPA placed 13th, and it’s a mark that commonly causes much less than 32 goal passes. Quantity aids, yet Love’s 5.8% TD price placed leading 3 in the organization and will certainly be specifically challenging to maintain with reduced effectiveness.

Love taken advantage of the second-most red-zone efforts (100) last period, yet Environment-friendly Bay included huge back Josh Jacobs throughout the offseason. The Packers racked up 76.2% of their touchdowns through the air in 2014, while Jacobs balanced 11 hurrying TDs over 2020-2022. Additionally, the Packers are extremely not likely to rack up a goal on a historical 95% of their goal-to-go possessions like last period, which was the highest rate since at least the 90s.

Possibly we need to offer extra credit score to Love’s 2nd fifty percent offered it was his initial year as a starter, yet it’s additionally worth noting it wasa small sample Love additionally typically really did not carry out well in terms of stable prediction metrics, and his huge enter the 2nd fifty percent was aided by improvement under pressure, which isn’t incredibly trusted when predicting future performance.

Love ought to have an effective dream period, yet he’s a little over-ranked many thanks to running warm on goals in 2014.